Wednesday, August 27, 2008

It is about surviving

I am looking forward to the upcoming NFL season. My beloved Dallas Cowboys are in a position to make a serious run to the Super Bowl. That alone will do wonders for one’s football morale. But I am also looking forward to betting the week’s games and avoiding fantasy football.

Yep, you read that correctly. Avoiding fantasy football.

The league I have played in for the past couple of years folded. It wasn’t very competitive and it shrunk each of the last 3 seasons. After easily cruising through the season with one loss last year I got dumped in the playoffs in the first week because my starters were on the bench as the first playoff game was in week 16, not in 14 or 15 which would have made a huge difference for me.

So with that bitter taste still in my mouth, I decided to avoid fantasy football altogether and put my focus on betting the games. That and Miami Don’s Survivor Football. For those not aware of what survivor football is, a quick tutorial. Pick 1 winner each week. Sounds simple, huh? Only catch is once you pick a team, you cannot use them again for the rest of the season.

Survivor Football is a unique competition in itself with some strategies that can be applied. Do you take the favorites early? Do you sandbag them until later? Do you focus on powerful teams or the weak ones?

My strategy is to hold off on some big favorites until a couple weeks into the season. I believe that even though they may play some strong football early, they will get better as the season goes on. Plus it is nice to have a bullet in the chamber when it gets down to the nitty gritty between you and a handful of players. I look to hold off on the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers until a least a month out.

I also like to pick on the weak teams. You would have done well last year picking whoever played the Dolphins. It was like taking candy from a baby. Kansas City looks to be bad this year. Very bad. And those Dolphins won’t be much better than last year. Better but only a couple games better. Toss in the Raiders and you should be able to get through the first month. This year is a bit more difficult for some of these teams because they are playing tweeners.

It is those tweener teams that can you into pickles. The Vikings have a running game but no QB and a defense that should be better. Can you trust them? What about New Orleans? The Saint were great two years ago but stunk it up last year. Will they bounce back? Same with the Panthers. The Packers have injuries and an unproven QB. Dare you take them in week 1?

To make things interesting I decided to post my picks for the entire season. I plan to use them each week barring any major injuries or other surprises. I am not locking myself in. If a team is better/worse than expected, I will make a change.

Week 1- Pittsburgh over Houston
Week 2- Seattle over San Fran
Week 3- Buffalo over Oakland
Week 4- Denver over K.C.
Week 5- San Diego over Miami
Week 6- Dallas over Arizona
Week 7- Indy over Green Bay
Week 8- New England over St. Louis
Week 9- Minnesota over Houston
Week 10- Jacksonville over Detroit
Week 11- New Orleans over K.C.
Week 12- New York Giants over Arizona
Week 13- Oakland over K.C.
Week 14- Washington over Baltimore
Week 15- Philly over Cleveland
Week 16- Green Bay over Chicago
Week 17- Houston over Chicago

There you have it. 17 weeks of meaningless prognostication. So I didn't feel like working. Sue me.

3 comments:

Drizztdj said...

I want to hear zero bitching about week nine!

pokerpeaker said...

I am a Chiefs fan so Fantasy Football is all I'm really going to have this year.

AlCantHang said...

I was thinking Pittsburgh myself for the first week but Houston has a way of destroying these pools on week 1.

Good luck with the picks.