Monday, March 10, 2008

If only I had cowboyed up

Saturday with Change was not as kind to me as an afternoon with Pauly. I wasn't Gigli but was the third one shown the door. I flopped a set with a redraw to a straight. But Riggstad goes for the big gamble and hits his flush on the river and I was done. Sure he had a ton of outs there so I can't berate him. Too much that is. Bastard.

I kind of set myself up for that clusterfuck though. When the PLO game started, I was in the middle of the Full Tilt Silver freeroll (got me $30 there when I made an impatient push of A Qo to a re-raise, a move I laughed at another player for making earlier), had a Stud Hi/Lo Sng up and was sitting at a PLO8 table. The 4 games were to much for me to follow at the time. My pc sounded like a slot machine with all the chimes and beeps coming from it. Half the time I didn't know which game it was. Next time I go back to starting to drink when the tournaments are halfway over.

Overall the weekend was slightly profitable. It could have been hugely profitable if I hadn't pussied out of a hand. After the river card hit, I was even more pissed off that when I had folded. Here is the scenario: .50/1.00 PLO8. I am in the BB with A J 10 4, with the A and 10 being clubs. It is raised in EP to 3.5. SB calls and I take a flop hoping to hit and go to battle. Flop is A K 3, two clubs. SB checks. I bet pot, $14. EP- the initial raiser pots it to $56. My initial thought is I will probably call that bet. I don't think they raised with A A or K K. But then the SB pushes all in for a total of over $100. Suddenly my entire stack is on the line. I have $88 behind and it would all go in.

I froze. My initial thought was calling the first raise, feeling I was ahead with top pair, a gutshot straight and nut flush draw. But when the check raise was made, I didn't know what to do. My plan was to bet out and get one to fold. But they both fired away. Suddenly I felt I was behind to the SB. Someone had to flop a set there. Sure I take a chance on the draws, but I was probably behind and had to catch.

I wussed out and folded.

EP showed a draw to a nut low, with only a pair of aces. SB showed a K high flush draw with a low draw. I was ahead of both. When the 4 of clubs hit the river, I was ticked. I slammed the table, sending a bottle of beer flying. My initial feelings were right after all. I would have taken down a huge pot. Instead I was in fear of losing the whole buyin. Even worse, the pair of aces with a J kicked would have taken the pot.

Even now I am not sure the laydown was necessarily a good or bad one. It isn't as much the result as it was the inaction. I called hoping to hit and I did. But I failed when it came time to cowboy up and go to battle. That is what ticked me off. It was like throwing a rock at the big kids and then running away instead of fighting. Especially when some of the players like to bully people at the PLO tables.

I believe I learned a lesson there. When the time is right, I will stand and fight. Hopefully the river will be kind to me then as well.

2 comments:

bayne_s said...

PL O8 is a sick game.

Variance is so high that I think you need 4x the bankroll to play a level than you would need at NLHE.

Someday I will follow this line of thinking.

Flush draw alone is 27% to beat a set for high, gutter is probably another 10%, chance that top and bottom pair is ahead should be low and if up against set of Ks Aces do provide 2 more outs.

Against 2 others in PLO it is insta-call, having nothing for the low makes calling for stack rough.

I think Drizz will jam a 235 in that spot.

Drizztdj said...

In matter of fact I did jam a hand like this with A235 this week (even had a flush draw) which crushed the bottom two pair shover (until the board didn't cooperate).

Honestly, you're usually up against a set but as Bayne said its an insta-call (in high) with gutter+nut flush draw getting 2:1.

With hi/low it gets tricky because any low on the board and you're playing for $150 not $300, thus the true odds suck.

As for the variance... I'm currently down 13 buy ins over the last two months, but playing mostly 6-max its my own fault if I can't handle the swings.