Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Tracking

After playing quite a bit of PLO8 this weekend, I finally decided to keep track of my totals to see how good/bad I am actually doing. Having mixed in a bunch of SnGs around the game, I realized just watching my bankroll wasn't going to explain my actual results. My bankroll may have dipped but I also have some tokens stacking up that would translate into a higher BR.

I am mainly playing .25/.50. I have played some .50/1.00 but feel more comfortable at the lower level. Likewise, playing .10/.25 seems like too low and is a waste of time. I will usually have 2 tables going, with a SnG possibly in the background.

I had a hunch on how these PLO8 sessions were going. It felt like I was having a bunch of small win/loss session with larger win/loss sessions in between. Now that I am tracking, I know the truth.

I think yesterday's play is typical. I had one table where things were great. I finished up after an hour to the tune of $25. But on the other table, I was down $36. That was the result of one hand that I don't believe I played wrong. If anything, the best play was to avoid playing the hand at all.

I saw a flop from the BB with 3 6 7 x that was double suited. It was a min raise that had two other callers. My thinking was to see a flop. If it hit me, I can take down a nice sized pot. Well, the flop did hit me. It came 5 8 9, giving me a straight, but with two spades. I didn't want a spade draw to go after it so I bet pot. I was called by only the intial raiser. The turn was a J of clubs. Not a good card but I highly doubted someone was playing Q 10 at this spot. I proceeded to bet about 3/4 of the pot. I was promptly called. Hmm.... The river was an 8. I tried to think about what the could have been calling down with. I figured it was either a good low that didn't hit or maybe they had A A and were being stubborn. I was certain they missed their low but checked as I wanted more time to put them on a hand. They then proceeded to bet just under half the pot. This confused me a bit. Were they now trying to scare me away? Or was this a value.

I noticed my hand move the mouse over the MAX tab on the bet area. I was about to click it and mash the bet button when my brain screamed one more time, IT IS A VALUE BET. Problem was, I couldn't put him on a hand. How did that 8 hit him?

I ended up calling. I just couldn't fold at this point. He turned over a hand showing 9 9. He rivered his full house.

Can anyone fold here? I played the hand through my head and tried to understand how this person had played it. They flopped a set and saw there was a possible flush and low hand. On the turn, the J doesn't help either flush or low. The 8 on the river makes it high only. Did my betting look like I was chasing one or the other? I don't think so, except for the river check. Any bet there would have lost me more money.

I guess I have to chalk this one up to just a bad card and that I am lucky I didn't lose more on this hand. As always, any thought from you PLO8 guys is appreciated.

1 comment:

Drizztdj said...

Flat calls until the paired river with a possible flopped straight or flush = flopped set about 95% of the time

Those folds will become easier after playing for a while.